Molerats__2010__gelinasRyan.pdf

## Executive summary This thesis examines the feasibility of a cyber-deterrence doctrine and argues that the core problem of cyber warfare is attribution: attackers can obfuscate origin and motive, blend state and non-state actors, and exploit political incentives to conceal attacks. Through case studies (Estonia DDoS, Moonlight Maze, Brazilian outages, Aurora, Titan Rain) the author shows technical obfuscation, long forensic timelines, and political reluctance to attribute complicate credible deterrence, concluding that defensive measures, information sharing, and selective offensive countermeasures are preferable to relying on deterrence.